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Volkan Demirel Breaks the Drought: A Win is a Win, But What Does the Data Say?
Volkan Demirel, the former Fenerbahçe legend, finally snagged his first victory as head coach of Gençlerbirliği, a 2-1 win against RAMS Başakşehir. The match, played on November 8th, saw Gençlerbirliği claw their way up to 11 points, edging slightly further from the relegation quicksand. A win is a win, especially in a league as cutthroat as the Trendyol Super League. But let’s peel back the layers of celebratory headlines and see what the numbers actually tell us.
Penalty Problems and Statistical Anomalies
The victory came courtesy of two penalty goals, one from Thalisson in the 35th minute and another from M'Baye Niang in the 53rd. Başakşehir's sole goal was notched by Eldor Shomurodov in the 46th minute. Two penalties in a single match? Statistically, that raises eyebrows. The average number of penalties awarded per Super League match this season hovers around 0.3 (that's a rough estimate based on publicly available data; a deeper dive would require a premium subscription to a sports analytics platform). Two penalties awarded to one team in a single game is a significant outlier.
Were these legitimate fouls inside the box, or were Başakşehir players caught on a bad day? Without access to the referee's report and video analysis of each incident, it’s impossible to say definitively. What I can say is that relying on penalties as a primary offensive strategy is a risky game. It's unsustainable in the long run.
Demirel hadn’t tasted victory since December 13, 2024, a 2-0 win with Bodrum FK against Sivasspor – a painful 329-day gap. That’s a long time in the world of professional football, where careers are often measured in months, not years. This win buys him some breathing room, but the pressure is far from off. Volkan Demirel played his second match with Gençlerbirliği! Here is the result.
Looking Ahead: Galatasaray Looms
The article mentions that Başakşehir's 3-match unbeaten streak, under Nuri Şahin, came to an end. Three matches is hardly a "streak" in the grand scheme of things; it’s more of a blip. What’s more concerning for Başakşehir is their inability to convert possession into goals. Their midfield boasts some technically gifted players, but the final product is consistently lacking.
Gençlerbirliği's upcoming fixture is a daunting away game against Galatasaray after the international break. Galatasaray, one of the perennial powerhouses of Turkish football, will be a completely different beast compared to Başakşehir. Can Demirel build on this momentum, or will they be crushed by Galatasaray's superior firepower? The data suggests the latter is more likely. Galatasaray's goal difference is currently +15 (as of November 8th, 2025), while Gençlerbirliği's is a dismal -8.
A Win is Just a Data Point
This victory provides a temporary reprieve for Volkan Demirel and Gençlerbirliği. However, a closer look at the data reveals that the underlying issues remain. Relying on penalties and facing a tough schedule ahead, the path to sustained success is far from guaranteed. The real test lies not in celebrating this single win, but in addressing the fundamental weaknesses that continue to plague the team.