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The AI Bubble: Are We Really This Stupid Again?
So, another day, another breathless article asking if we're in a bubble. This time it's AI. Seriously? Are we really doing this again? Are We in a Stock Bubble? This Is the Only Thread You Need piece is the latest example, trotting out the usual suspects – Grantham, Burry, Altman, Wood – to bicker about whether the sky is falling or if AI is going to magically solve all our problems.
It's the same damn script every time.
The "Expert" Echo Chamber
These "experts" love to point at the Shiller P/E ratio like it's some kind of crystal ball. Oh, it's high? Must be 1929 all over again! Give me a break. As the article itself admits, P/Es aren't perfectly comparable. The Fed was in diapers back then. No internet, no cell phones. The whole world was riskier. It's like comparing a horse-drawn carriage to a Tesla and saying they both get you from point A to point B. Yeah, technically...
Then there's the "is this 1999 all over again?" argument. Red-hot tech boom, Fed cutting rates... okay, I'll grant you some similarities. But corporate profits are way stronger now. And AI could be a game-changer. I mean, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar says she doesn't think there's enough exuberance about AI. Really? Maybe she should step outside the Silicon Valley echo chamber for five minutes.
But here's my question: if AI is so revolutionary, why does it feel like every other "innovation" is just a way to squeeze more money out of us?
Creative Destruction or Just Plain Destruction?
They trot out Schumpeter and "creative destruction," as if that justifies the coming layoffs and societal upheaval. Streaming killed Blockbuster? Digital photography killed Kodak? Okay, those were things. But AI is poised to disrupt everything. And who benefits? A handful of tech giants who already control everything. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos says investors will have a hard time distinguishing between the good ideas and the bad ideas... but how are we, the average schmoes, supposed to tell the difference?
And let's be real, the dominant companies are more likely to stay dominant. They have the GPUs, the power, the data. The little guy doesn't stand a chance. So much for the American dream.
Oh, and the retail surge? The meme stocks? The crypto craze? All classic signs of mania, they say. Yeah, no kidding. "When the shoeshine boy gives you stock tips, it’s time to get out." Except now it's baristas and Reddit bros. Are people really that stupid? Wait, don't answer that.
Offcourse, the article ends with the usual platitudes about humility and understanding all sides of the debate. As if that's going to help when the whole damn thing comes crashing down.
The Inevitable Collapse
Look, I'm not saying AI is a complete hoax. It has potential. But the hype is insane. The valuations are insane. The whole thing feels like a house of cards built on hopium and VC money. And when it collapses—and it will collapse—it's going to be ugly. The dot-com bust 2.0... actually, it'll be worse. Because this time, it's not just Pets.com going belly up. It's potentially the entire economy.
The Price We'll All Pay
And the worst part? We're all going to pay for it. Not just the "unsophisticated" retail investors, but everyone. Our jobs, our savings, our future... all collateral damage in the AI gold rush.
I'm not even sure what the answer is anymore. Maybe there isn't one. Maybe we're just doomed to repeat the same mistakes over and over again. But one thing's for sure: I ain't buying into this AI bullshit.
